What is Plan B?

 

So far, it has been a mild winter where I live. In both December and January temperatures have been in the 20’s with only short excursions in the teens, but mostly temperatures above freezing. This is not normal. Now that I have lived here more than twenty years and been a frequent visitor more than thirty, I can say that normal winter weather used to mean snow at the beginning of deer hunting season (November 15) that would remain on the ground until the end of March. This winter our snow has come and gone so often that it is noteworthy when the snow remains on the ground more than two or three days. (Full disclosure; our current snow cover has lasted about one week)

How much of this winter’s weather is due to the current La Nina (that is known to be temporary) or are we at a new normal due to climate change? No one seems to be certain. However, the fact is that six of the 10 hottest years on record globally were in the last decade. Research indicates rising global temperatures will likely increase the number of ice-free winters for lakes across Michigan, and decrease the amount of snow cover in North America. Already our businesses who offer snow-based recreation are suffering through a major loss in revenue.

This shouldn’t be a surprise. Scientists have understood the greenhouse effect since the 1850’s, but it wasn’t until 1958 that one scientist, Charles David Keeling, began regularly measuring and tracking atmospheric CO2. Just since that time, it’s climbed by more than 30 percent, about 100 times faster than any natural cycle can explain. In a Nutshell: Global temperatures are now rising at an accelerating rate, which began in the 1800’s. This is entirely due to greenhouse gas buildup from human activity, mainly the burning of fossil fuels. We are the cause of this change.

Not only is this raising the global temperature, but a sizable fraction of the CO₂ we produce is going into the oceans, causing the water to become more acidic. That’s detrimental to important marine life upon which 10 to 12% of the world’s population depends.

Human activity, mostly fossil fuel burning, currently adds over a thousand tons of CO₂ per second to the atmosphere and the oceans. Natural cycles, volcanoes, and the sun have all been ruled out as the cause of the current heat buildup. They are either too small, too slow, or going in the opposite direction.

Here are the greenhouse gases and their effect on global warming:

 

 

Greenhouse Gas	Heat trapping power (relative to CO2)	Concentration (ppm/million in air)
Carbon dioxide (CO2)	1	420
Methane (CH4)	83	2
Nitrous oxide (N2O)	273	0.3

 

Consequently, CO₂ is the pivotal component that drives climate change. A tiny amount of CO₂ is needed in the atmosphere, or most all of the earth’s surface would be frozen. But just a tiny fraction – around 0.03% – is enough to keep earth at a nice stable temperature of around 60°F, allowing human civilization to flourish. This is the approximate amount of C02 that existed in the atmosphere for much of human history on earth.

Public appreciation of the dangers associated with climate change has grown since it first crashed onto the national scene with Dr. James Hansen’s 1988 Senate testimony. But even now, how this phenomenon works still remains a mystery to many people, especially among those of us who have failed to keep abreast of current science.  Where mysteries persist, misinformation thrives, and it is compounded by false information that is shared on the internet via “unsocial media.”

It is time for everyone to support efforts that will reduce air pollution from fossil fuels so that our children will inherit a planet that is livable. As you may know, there is no plan B.